每日原则:认真思考你做决策所依据的标准,据此建造优秀的决策机器
任何时候做出投资决策,我都会三思而后行,并考虑应该秉持什么原则。我问自己在那种情况下应怎么处理,并把行事原则记录下来,然后再把它程序化。对于管理我也是这样做的,我已经养成了做任何决定都按此操作的习惯。
程序化能保证让原则始终如一地发挥作用。我相信,系统化的、有证据支撑的决策将会大大提升管理的质量。如果管理者在处理信息时往往使用未经过深思熟虑的标准,并被个人情绪喜好所左右,这就难以产生最优的决策。想象一下,依据高质量的决策原则/标准,用机器对高质量数据进行处理会产生什么效果,就好比车载GPS,其作用无法估量,无论你是否遵循它给出的行车建议。我相信这些工具会在未来成为不可或缺的工具,在我写作本书之时,距离网上出现此类工具应该已经不远了。
Whenever I make an investment decision, I observe myself making it and think about the criteria I used. I ask myself how I would handle another one of those situations and write down my principles for doing so. Then I turn them into algorithms. I am now doing the same for management and I have gotten in the habit of doing it for all my decisions.
Algorithms are principles in action on a continuous basis. I believe that systemized, evidence-based decision making will radically improve the quality of management. Human managers process information spontaneously using poorly thought-out criteria and are unproductively affected by their emotional biases. These all lead to suboptimal decisions. Imagine what it would be like to have a machine that processes high-quality data using high-quality decision-making principles/criteria. Like the GPS in your car, it would be invaluable, whether you follow all of its suggestions or not. I believe that such tools will be essential in the future.
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