央行准则：雷厉风行、手起刀落 | 经济学人社论
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思维导图：
Angela， “如果这纷乱的世界让我沮丧，我就去看看她们眼中的光芒。”
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Leaders | Fool me once
经济学人社论 | 再骗我试试
英文部分选自经济学人20240322社论版块
Leaders | Fool me once
经济学人社论 | 再骗我试试
Central banks have spent down their credibility
央行信誉已耗尽
That will make inflation trickier to handle in future
控制通胀之路更加荆棘
注释：Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
骗我一次，算你狠，骗我两次，算我蠢。
Not long ago the rich world was braced for a costly battle with inflation. Today it can seem as if the war has been won bloodlessly. In most rich countries annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has fallen from peaks of 5-8% to a more tolerable 3-5%. In defiance of pessimistic economists, there has been no accompanying economic slump. Growth varies from booming (America) to respectable (Australia, Canada, Japan) to tepid (Britain, the euro area), but nowhere has it collapsed. In contrast to the disinflation of the 1980s, unemployment has stayed low. Has the world economy enjoyed salvation without sacrifice? Sadly, the answer is no; high inflation has left scars.
富裕国家前不久还在磨刀霍霍，准备与通胀血拼。但目前来看，它们兵不血刃已经凯旋。大多数富裕国家的年核心通胀率（不包含波动较大的食品和能源价格）已从5-8%的峰值下降至相对温和的3-5%。与悲观派经济学家的预期相反，经济还在增长，程度各有不同，但完全没有低迷之势：有的增长强劲（美国），有的涨势尚可（澳大利亚、加拿大、日本），有的不愠不火（英国、欧元区），但没有任何地方崩盘。失业率一直处在较低水平，与上世纪80年代通胀趋缓（disinflation）时的情况形成对比。世界经济真就这么免费复活了吗？想得美，答案是否定的；高通胀是有记忆的，怎可能就这么便宜了你们。
Before the covid-19 pandemic, the rich world enjoyed decades without any serious inflation problems. After ruthless monetary tightening in the 1980s, followed by a movement towards independent central banks targeting inflation, price surges seemed as outdated as shoulder pads. As firms and workers came to assume that inflation would stay low, they kept prices and wages in check. Their expectations thereby proved self-fulfilling.
疫情前的几十年，富裕国家岁月静好，没出现过严重的通胀。上世纪80年代经历了激进的货币紧缩后，各国央行开始设定通胀目标，此后，价格飙升似乎就像垫肩一样成为了过去时。企业和工人渐渐认为通胀会一直保持在低位，所以他们稳住了价格和工资水平。从后来的情况看，他们对通胀的预期可以说是心诚则灵。
Unfortunately the idea that inflation was dead also lodged inthe minds of central bankers. When prices started to rise in 2021 they were horribly slow to respond. Eventually they lifted interest rates much higher than they had initially thought necessary. Today faster-than-expected disinflation has allowed them a sigh of relief. Last month Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that interest-rate cuts were not far away—although he seemed more guarded in a speech on April 3rd. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, has celebrated an “increasingly positive story”.
问题是，央行行长竟也认为通胀已“死”。价格在2021年刚开始上涨时，他们的反应迟钝得惊人。后来终于开始加息，最终实际加息幅度远高于他们最早认为的必要水平。如今，快于预期的通胀回落（disinflation）让他们稍获喘息。上个月，美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，降息是近在眼前的事——尽管在4月3日的一次演讲中他似乎更为谨慎。英国央行行长安德鲁•贝利（Andrew Bailey）很振奋，认为经济局面“越来越好”。
But central bankers’ problems are not over. Inflation remains above their targets. In Europe it is likely to fall further, but only because the economy is weak. In America getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal probably cannot be achieved at the current rate of economic growth, which is fuelled in part by an unsustainable government deficit.
但是，诸位央行行长的难题并没有解决。通胀仍高于目标水平。欧洲的通胀可能会进一步下降，但这只是因为经济疲软。就凭现在的经济增速，美国很难将通胀降至美联储2%的目标，何况还是不可持续的政府赤字在一定程度上提振了经济增长。
Most important, the public is more attuned to the danger of inflation than it was before the pandemic. Some surveys show an uptick in long-run inflation expectations. Financial markets in America and Britain are charging a bit more for long-term inflation protectionthan they did. Predictions for future inflation have become more dispersed, meaning more people doubt whether inflation targets will be hit. In other words, now that high inflation is no longer a distant memory, the credibility of central banks looks fragile.
最重要的是，公众较疫情之前更能灵敏地察觉通胀的危险。部分调查显示，远期通胀预期还会有小幅上升。由于市场预期通胀将表现出更强的黏性，英美市场的相关避险资产定价略有走高。对未来通胀的预测渐趋分散，说明更多人觉得恐难实现通胀目标。也就是说，既然高通胀在人们的记忆中并不遥远，央行的信誉已岌岌可危。
注释：
“long-term inflation protection” refers to measures taken to safeguard against the impact of inflation over an extended period of time.
It could shatter if another shock like the pandemic strikes. Inflation expectations rising definitively would cause inflation to persist until central banks brought about a painful slowdown. That was just about avoided this time, but further testing episodes are likely. Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, climate change and governments’ fondness for fiscal stimulus will all make inflation more volatile than it was in the sleepy decades after the 1980s. The risk is two-sided: Europe, especially, still faces the danger of inflation falling below the 2% target, owing to a weak economy.
如果疫情等冲击再次袭来，央行信誉可能就荡然无存了。通胀预期上升必定导致通胀持续走高，直到央行出手，以巨大代价减缓通胀。这次险些沦落到这步田地，但以后一波接一波的考验肯定少不了。由于地缘政治局势紧张、贸易战、气候变化以及政府偏爱财政刺激手段，通胀的动荡注定要超过上世纪80年代后沉寂的那几十年。这种风险是两极的：尤其是欧洲，经济疲软使其仍面临通胀低于2%目标的危险。
The combination of volatile inflation and diminished credibility means that the rich world’s policymakers must be agile. They will need to adjust interest rates more quickly and to a greater extent when inflation fluctuates—and tolerate the resulting economic volatility. In so doing they will come to look a bit like their colleagues in emerging markets. Without as long a record of low inflation behind them, central banks in Brazil, Chile and Poland all raised interest rates sharply in 2021; all have since cut them as inflation has fallen. Move fast and forcefully: this is the rule book that the likes of Mr Powell and Mr Bailey will have to follow.
通胀波动和信誉下降意味着发达国家的决策者必须机敏果决。通胀一旦波动，他们调整利率时下手要更快、更狠，还要承受通胀导致的经济波动。这样，他们的形象就会有点像新兴国家的央行行长。因为没有经历过同样长时间的低通胀，巴西、智利和波兰的央行都在2021年大幅上调了利率，又在通胀回落后下调了利率。雷厉风行、手起刀落：这是鲍威尔和贝利之辈今后必须遵循的法则。
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