通胀序幕且落，硝烟四起 | 经济学人社论
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Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯翻译/音乐/健康
早鸟票：329（6.10-8.09）
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Leaders | The end of the beginning
经济学人社论 | 序幕且落，硝烟起
各央行抗通胀成效初现，而硬仗才刚开始
玩政治游戏、搞保护主义：时局艰难
The trajectory of inflation has not given central bankers much cause for celebration in recent years. But at the , Portugal, this week, a touch of self-congratulation has been in the air.“I know it sounds a little bit arrogant,” confessed Christine Lagarde, the ecb’s president, on July 1st, but the unwinding of high inflation “is remarkable”. “We’ve made a lot of progress,” said Jerome Powell, the chairman of America’s Federal Reserve, the next day. Others agree. “Central banks have risen to the challenge” of high inflation, commends the Bank for International Settlements.
通胀近年来的发展轨迹并未给央行官员太多欢欣雀跃的理由。但是本周在葡萄牙辛特拉举办的欧洲央行年度大会却让人嗅到些许自鸣得意的气息。7月1日，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）坦言，“我知道这听上去有点狂妄”，但高通胀情况的缓解“成效显著”。次日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示：“我们取得了巨大进展”。众人纷纷赞同。国际清算银行盛赞“各国央行已成功经受了高通胀的洗礼”。
In the air (idiom): If something is in the air, you feel that it is happening or about to happen.即将发生；可被感觉到；被人们意识到（见Cambridge Dictionary）
The data do indeed merit some satisfaction. After cumulative price increases between 2021 and 2023 of 15% in America and 18% in the euro zone, annual inflation rates now stand at just 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. Yet the time for mutual back-patting may be brief. Lower inflation, though welcome, does not mean a return to the relatively stable economy that prevailed before the pandemic. Several perils loom on the supply side, which could constrain growth and boost inflation, just as a return to populism in America and Europe threatens fiscal blowouts and more price pressure still. Central bankers may be winning the battle against inflation. The war is just beginning.
数据表现确实让人满意。2021年至2023年间，美国与欧元区的累计价格涨幅分别为15%与18%，而现在年通胀率分别仅为2.6%与2.5%。然而，留给它们互相吹捧的时间可不多。通胀率降了虽令人欢欣，但并不意味着经济已经恢复到了疫情前那种相对稳定的状态。供给侧隐患显现，或将阻遏经济增长，助长通胀气焰，正如民粹主义在美国与欧洲卷土重来，或会导致财政赤字与更严重的价格压力。也许各国央行即将驯服通胀，而真正的战争这才开始。
Consider the dangers to supply. Donald Trump has promised a 10% across-the-board tariff if he returns to the White House, and, after Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance in a presidential debate in Georgia on June 27th, investors and prediction markets think that a second Trump term looks more likely. The levy, and any retaliation, will push up the cost of imports. Climate change and surging investment in green infrastructureare helping keep commodity prices high even with global growth weak, according to the World Bank. And the risk of an escalation in the war in the Middle East hangs over the world economy.
首先是供应层面的风险。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）已承诺若重回白宫，将全面征收10%的关税。6月27日，乔·拜登（Joe Biden）在佐治亚州上演灾难式总统辩论之后，投资者与预测市场认为，特朗普貌似更可能二次当选。10％的关税，再加上任何反击，都会推高进口成本。世界银行称，即便全球增长乏力，气候变化以及激增的绿色基础设施投资也会让大宗商品价格保持在高位。中东地区战争升级的风险亦给世界经济蒙上了一层阴影。
What these potential shocks have in common is that, like the pandemic, they threaten to send growth and inflation in opposite directions. According to Goldman Sachs, Mr Trump’s 10% tariff would, if it provoked retaliation by America’s trading partners, add 1.1 percentage points to American inflation while marginally reducing growth. Euro-area output could fall by 1%. And that is without factoring in the additional damage caused by a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which Mr Trump might also decide to impose.
这些潜在冲击的共性在于，它们跟疫情一样，极有可能使增长与通胀朝着相反的方向发展。高盛称，如果特朗普10%的关税引发美国贸易伙伴的反击，将使美国的通胀率增加1.1个百分点，同时略微减缓经济增长。欧元区的产出可能下降1%。这尚未包含特朗普可能针对中国商品征收60%关税所造成的额外损害。
In theory, central bankers should ignore supply shocks, which exert only a passing direct effect on inflation. In practice, with repeated bursts of inflation—let alone a surge as big as that which followed the pandemic—their inflation targets could come to seem merely theoretical. Yet their other option, of raising interest rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy quickly, would be painful. Were Mr Powell, Ms Lagarde or their successors to raise rates with every escalation in a trade war, say, the world economy would become far more volatile.
理论上，央行理应忽略供给冲击，因为这对通胀的直接影响很短暂。实际上，由于通胀的频频爆发——更别提像疫情后那样大幅度的飙升——他们的通胀目标或许只能留在纸面上而已。然而，他们的另一个选择，即提高利率以快速挤出经济中的通胀，将会带来痛苦。倘若鲍威尔、拉加德或他们的继任者每逢贸易战升级就加息，那么世界经济将变得愈发动荡。
Layered on top of this is politicians’ renewed fondness for running up big debts. As the world has discovered, wars, pandemics and commodity crises are costly. Though tariffs raise government revenue, supply shocks tend to harm growth, making debts harder to repay.
此外，政客们又开始热衷于大肆举债。如今大家都明白，战争、疫情和大宗商品危机的代价十分高昂。虽然关税增加了政府收入，但是供给冲击往往会危害经济增长，使债务偿还更加困难。
Bond markets are already alert to lavish fiscal policy; investors took fright at the prospect of a victory for the populist right in France’s parliamentary poll, only to calm a little as a hung parliament appeared more likely after the first round of voting.Yields on ten-year Treasuries have risen as investors contemplate a Republican sweep in America’s elections in November, which would make deficit-financed tax cuts more likely. Such policies will only push up inflation, forcing central banks to raise interest rates—and putting them on a collision course with Mr Trump and other populist politicians.
债券市场已经开始警惕大手笔的财政政策。投资者对于民粹主义右翼可能赢得法国议会民调的前景深感惊恐；首轮投票后，出现悬峙议会的可能性更大，大家才稍稍安心了点。同时，投资者认为共和党将在11月大选中大获全胜，且很有可能推行靠赤字减税的政策。这种预期推高了十年期国债收益率。这种政策只会让通胀更加严重，各国央行不得不提高利率，同时还得对付特朗普和其他民粹主义政客。
hung parliament：如果在计票后没有哪个政党获得明显的多数席位，那么这一选举结果将被视为“悬峙议会”（hung parliament）在这种情况下，联盟党或工党必须寻求与小党派或任何独立国会议员达成协议，以便执政。对于联盟党来说，即使失去一个席位，他们也需要与跨党派议员达成协议，以少数党政府的形式执政。
前路坎坷
The risk of a more inflationary world is still under-appreciated. At times the mood in Sintra did become sombre, but—notwithstanding their recent jitters—financial markets are for the most part priced giddily, as though the recent episode of inflation was an aberration, and stability will now prevail. More probably, the pandemic marked the start of a dangerous new time—one in which victories for central banks will be rarer and harder-fought.
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Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind.
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