印度、印尼、沙特阿拉伯将会成为未来的经济强国吗？ | 经济学人社论
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思维导图：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
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英文部分选自经济学人20240106社论板块
Leaders | Towering ambition
社论│壮志凌云
Can India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia be the next great economies?
印度、印度尼西亚、沙特阿拉伯将会成为未来的经济强国吗？
Meet the countries making bold—and risky—bets on growth
一起来了解那些不惜下血本、不畏高风险以求发展的国家
Politicians and policymakers all over the world share a preoccupation: how to make their countries richer. The trouble is that the route to prosperity looks ever more daunting. The global economy is changing, as new, green technologies emerge and trading relationships fragment. In countries that are already rich the state, after decades of free-market rhetoric, is back in a big way. Governments are spending hundreds of billions on handouts for industries they deem to be strategically important.
全世界的政治家和政策制定者都在琢磨的一件事是：如何让自己的国家更富有。现在的问题是，繁荣之路比以前更加困难重重。随着新兴绿色科技涌现和贸易关系分崩离析，全球经济波谲云诡。那些已经跻身富裕国家行列的国家，在为自由市场高歌了数十载之后，又气势汹汹地卷土重来。政府在它们认为具有重要战略意义的行业上一掷千金，大力扶持。
In the face of this, many developing countries’ ideas for growth are staggeringly ambitious. India and Indonesia hope to become high-income countries within 25 years. Muhammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, wants to diversify and develop its economy just as rapidly. Refreshingly, such plans are more outward-lookingthan many development strategies of old. But they contain pitfalls, too.
在这种情况下，很多发展中国家在经济增长方面的野心大得吓人。印度和印度尼西亚希望在25年内成为高收入国家。沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Muhammad bin Salman）也想要快速推动本国经济的多元发展。这些计划比过去很多发展策略都更具全球视野，令人耳目一新，但同时也存在一些缺陷。
In many ways, the developing world is choosing to bank on globalisation. Indonesia wants a bigger role in green supply chains. It seeks to do everything from mining and refining nickel, even to building the electric vehicles that run on it. It then wants to export the finished products to the rest of the world. Countries in the Gulf want to become attractive homes for global business, and are opening up to flows of people, cargo and cash. Narendra Modi envisions India as a high-tech manufacturer for the world, churning out microchips and smartphones.
发展中世界乘着全球化的东风在多方面寻求发展。印尼想在绿色供应链产业中获取更大的份额，因此极力开拓产业版图，从采矿到镍冶炼，甚至到制造以镍为电池原材料的电动汽车，并计划将成品销往全球。海湾国家想要吸引国际企业进驻，在人力、物资、资本方面更加开放。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）设想印度将成为高科技制造大国，能够大量生产微型芯片和智能手机。
That is a welcome shift. Less than 50 years ago India hoped to grow by closing itself off from the global economy. It turned out to be an approach that failed miserably. Some still suggest that India’s domestic demand could carry its growth.
这样的转变实属喜人。不到50年前，印度还希望与全球经济隔绝以实现经济增长，最后是一败涂地。直至现在，有些人仍然认为印度仅凭内需就足以带动国内经济增长。
But serving foreign markets plays a vital role in development. It keeps firms honest, by forcing them to compete in markets that their governments do not control. It lets them reach the largest possible scale. And foreign customers can teach firms how to serve them better. In East Asia export performance was also a useful yardstick for policymakers, because it revealed which industries deserved their continued backing.
但进入海外市场对发展至关重要，因为这迫使企业在不受本国政府控制的市场里进行竞争，从而做到诚信经营，同时也使得企业能够尽可能地发展壮大。而海外消费者也能让企业学习如何向他们提供更好的服务。在东亚，政策制定者以出口情况来判断哪些产业值得政府继续支持。
Nonetheless, today’s development strategies also hold dangers. In many countries governments are running the risk of warping the economy in the name of nurturing it. Saudi Arabia’s onslaught of industrial policy, mainly disbursed as handouts from the Public Investment Fund, exceeds the spending even of America’s Inflation Reduction Act. In order to help exporters grow, India is seeking to fence off its high-tech manufacturers behind tariffs and subsidies. Indonesia’s all-in bet on nickel leaves it perilously exposed, should other battery chemistries prevail.
然而，当下的发展战略同样存在风险。许多国家的政府表面上打着发展经济的旗号，实际上却有可能对经济造成损害。沙特强势的工业政策主要通过公共投资基金（The Public Investment Fund）的大举投资来实施，其开支甚至超过美国《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）。印度正试图通过关税和补贴来保护其高科技制造商，以帮助本国出口商发展壮大。印尼则在镍产业上孤注一掷，然而一旦有其他化学物质取代镍在电池中占据的主导地位，印尼将会岌岌可危。
注释：
1.warp: If something warps someone's character, it damages them or it influences them in a bad way. 扭曲；摧毁;不利于
2.disburse: to disburse an amount of money means to pay it out, usually from a fund which has been collected for a particular purpose. （通常指从专用资金中）支付，支出
3.handout: something given free to a needy person or organization补助，救济金
The rich world’s new-found zeal for protectionism may make it tempting for poorer countries to follow suit. Yet floods of cash and shelter from foreign competition make it impossible to know whether a government’s development gambles are paying off. A bet on one technology could go wrong if others emerge.
富裕国家最近对保护主义的追捧，可能会让贫穷国家纷纷效仿。然而，正是由于政府大量投入资金并保护本国企业免于国际竞争，我们很难判断某一政府为求发展经济的放手一搏是否真正奏效。把赌注都压在某一项技术上，一旦有其他技术出现（能取而代之），就会输得很惨。
Parts of the developing world have paid dearly to learn these lessons before. For most of the 1960s Africa’s policymakers had the same ideas as East Asia’s, and the continent grew as fast, until picking the wrong champions left it languishing between 1975 and 1985. It is the poorest region in the world today.
有些发展中国家曾经为此教训付出了沉重的代价。几乎在整个20世纪60年代里，非洲和东亚的政策制定者都采取了同样的方针，非洲大陆和东亚一样实现了快速增长，最后却由于压错了注而在1975至1985年间陷入困境。如今，非洲是世界上最贫困的地区。
注释：languish: to remain and suffer in an unpleasant situation. （被迫）受苦，受折磨
Picking winners is also harder than it was 60 years ago. Then the choice was over which form of manufacturing to promote. Cheap, abundant workforces gave poor countries an edge. Manufacturing was the only sector in which poor countries got better faster than rich countries.
现在选择重点支持产业也比 60 年前更加困难。当时，只需要选择发展哪种形式的制造业。充足的廉价劳动力给穷国带来了优势。制造业也是穷国比富国发展更快的唯一领域。
Today, however, factories have become more capital-intensive.Though manufacturing still offers a way to boost a country’s productivity, it is less certain to become a poor country’s comparative advantage. That makes it even harder for policymakers to spot a good industry for them to place their bets. Rather than gambling with the public’s money, they would be better off keeping it off the table.
然而，如今制造业需要大量的资本。尽管制造业仍可提高国家生产力，但想要把它变成贫穷国家的比较优势却越来越难。因此，政策制定者找准行业下注变得更加困难。而与其拿民众的钱去赌，他们还不如远离赌桌。
There are, after all, plenty of other worthwhile things to spend it on. The state has a vital role in providing public goods by investing in infrastructure to stitch regions together, or education to boost workers’ skills. That might still favour some industries over others. But if economies stay open, then they will at least experience the disciplines and benefits of trade.
毕竟，还有很多其他地方值得花钱。作为公共产品的主要提供方，国家可以投资基础设施，连通不同地区；也可以投资教育，提高劳动者的技能水平。尽管（政府投资）仍可能有行业偏重，但只要经济体保持开放，至少还是会体验到贸易的规则和好处。
Vision 2050
2050年展望
The stakes are high. The developing world is home to over 6bn people and some of the most fragile democracies. Getting growth wrong would keep such places poorer for longer. That would be not just a human tragedy, but also a potential source of political instability. To avert it, the developing world needs to be bold—and resist the urge to build walls around itself.
如履薄冰，如临深渊。发展中国家人口有60 多亿，部分国家还是民主最岌岌可危的国家。一旦经济发展误入歧途，这些国家将会陷入更深重、更长久的贫困之中。这不仅是人类的悲剧，也是政治动荡的祸根。为了避免这种情况，发展中国家需要勇敢面对，并抑制筑高墙、绝外界的冲动。
翻译组：
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观点|评论|思考
本周感想
许多时候，我们都会鲁莽地认为，只要努力，自己便能出人头地，但是绝大部分人却被现实打得晕头转向。但为什么在面对以人组成的国家时，却仍然心存类似的幻想呢？人的成功与否绝大部分原因来自幸运，天生高智商、情商，这是一种幸运；天生出生在罗马，这是一种幸运；有贵人相助，这又是一种幸运。我也能罗列出国家对应的幸运。
我们总是会有解释不清楚的事物，可能研究比较多的是哲学相关，本体论、认识论等等，都是会有一种可以拥有无数种解读的概念，在我看来，其实幸运一词也是如此。有些人会固执地认为幸运会降临在有准备的或是努力的人头上，但是这又如何解释出生的幸运呢？有些心怀鬼胎的人就编织出了一种轮回说，好恶有报，来世再报的说法。还有一种可能就是幸运也许分为好几类。但只要是宣扬将努力奋斗和好运联系起来的人，往往都是既得利益者，他们希望那些不得利的人依然需要进行奋斗和付出，来满足自身的需求，作为驱动此行为的一种让人信服的理由，便是这种报应轮回论。
与之相关的，却并非相反的一种说法：应该是付出与得到相等。而非把大部分的应得转化为遥不可及的幸运，自己留下这部分的应得。我们在批判他们时，大脑是清晰的，我们明白这么多年付出和努力的个体，回报却少得可怜。以下省略5000字。
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愿景
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