油价居高不下 | 经济学人财经
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Finance and economics | Explosive material
势不可挡
Finance and economics | Explosive material
势不可挡
Even without war in the Gulf, pricier petrol is here to stay
即使海湾国家没有战争，汽油价格依然会居高不下
Expensive oil could put Donald Trump in the White House
昂贵的石油可能将特朗普送进白宫
When iran’smissiles whizzed towards Israel on Saturday April 13th, oil markets were closed. When they opened on Monday, their reaction was a loud “meh”. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped below $90 a barrel. It has since hovered around that level (see chart).
4月13日星期六，伊朗的导弹呼啸飞向以色列时，石油市场已经闭市了。周一开市时，市场反应冷淡。全球基准布伦特原油跌破每桶 90 美元。此后就一直在该水平附近徘徊（见图表）。
Traders had expected an attack of precisely this variety: big enough to cause concern; obvious enough to be foiled. They are now betting that Israel will avoid anything too rash in response. Yet even if oil prices do not surge, they remain uncomfortably elevated and seem likely to rise higher still in the summer, when increasing demand amid tight supply will probably tip the market into deficit. A cast of decision-makers—from central bankers to President Joe Biden, who faces re-election in November—is watching anxiously.
交易商早就预见会发生此类袭击：规模之大，足以引发担忧，却声势浩大，足以被防范。他们现在打赌，以色列会避免过于轻率的反应。然而，即使油价没有飙升，也会保持高位，让人不安。夏季，油价似乎还会继续走高，届时在供应紧张之际，不断增长的需求很可能会让市场陷入赤字。一众决策者都在焦急关注着油价走势，包括各国央行行长和11月面临连任选举的乔·拜登总统。
Geopolitical risk explains, in part, why oil prices have risen by a quarter since December. Brent passed $90 for the first time in nearly six months after Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1st. Supply disruptions are playing an even bigger role. Mexico is slashing shipments in order to produce more petrol at home. A leaky Scottish pipeline was forced to close. Turmoil in Libya is disrupting output; war in South Sudan could do the same.
地缘政治风险在一定程度上解释了为何石油价格自12月以来上涨了四分之一。4月1日，以色列轰炸伊朗驻大马士革领事馆后，布伦特油价近六个月来首次突破 90 美元。供应中断的影响更大。墨西哥正在削减出口，以增加国内石油产量。苏格兰一条泄漏的输油管被迫关闭。利比亚的动荡影响了产量。南苏丹的战争也可能造成同样的后果。
Meanwhile, tougher sanctions on Russia are leaving more of its oil stranded. In March refiners in India—Russia’s second-biggest buyer since 2022—said they would no longer welcome tankers owned by Sovcomflot, Russia’s state-owned shipping firm, for fear of Western retribution. Most of the 40-odd tankers subject to sanctions by America since October have not gone on to load Russian oil. Thereimposition of sanctions on Venezuela could further dent supply. America may also decide to better police its embargo on Iran’s oil sales.
与此同时，对俄罗斯更为严厉的制裁导致更多石油滞留。今年3月，因担心受到西方制裁，2022年以来俄罗斯的第二大买家印度炼油厂表示，他们将不再欢迎俄罗斯国有航运公司索夫丰弗罗特(Sovcomflot)的油轮。自去年10月以来，受到美国制裁的40多艘油轮中，大多数停止装载俄罗斯石油。对委内瑞拉重新实施制裁可能会进一步重创石油供应。美国也可能决定更严格地执行其对伊朗石油销售的禁运。
注释：
1. stranded: If youare stranded, you are prevented from leaving a place, for example because of bad weather. 使滞留
2. retribution：Retributionis punishment for a crime, especially punishment that is carried out by someone other than the official authorities. 惩罚; 报应
3.Sovcomflot:is Russia's largest shipping company, and one of the global leaders in the maritime transportation of hydrocarbons, as well as the servicing and support of offshore exploration and oil & gas production. 是俄罗斯最大的航运公司，也是全球领先的碳氢化合物海上运输公司之一，同时还为海上勘探和油气生产提供服务和支持。
4. reimposition：重新征收
5.dent：If youdent the surface of something, you make a hollow area in it by hitting or pressing it. 使(外表)产生凹痕
6. embargo：If one country or group of countries imposes anembargo against another, it forbids trade with that country. 贸易禁运
The biggest supply disruption is deliberate. It is coming from theOrganisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+). In November the group pledged to cut output by 2.2m barrels a day (b/d), or 2% of global production. Most observers had expected that, with prices likely to rise throughout 2024, members would take the chance to row back on the cuts. Instead, several announced in March that they would extend them until the end of June. Russia even said it would deepen its cuts by another 471,000 b/d, reducing output to 9m b/d, from 10.8m b/d pre-war.
最大的供应中断是蓄意而为，是石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）有意为之。去年11月，该组织承诺将日产量削减220万桶，即全球产量的2%。大多数观察人士曾预计，由于油价可能在2024年全年持续上涨，各成员国或将趁机撤回减产计划。然而，今年3月，几个成员国宣布将延长减产计划至6月底。俄罗斯甚至表示，将进一步削减47.1万桶的日产量，也就是从俄乌冲突前的日产1080万桶降至日产900万桶。
Last year supply growth outside the cartel more than made up for the rise in demand. This year non-opecoutput will rise again—Brazil and Guyana are expected to pump record amounts—but growth will slow. Global oil stocks are already falling. They will shrink faster this summer, as holidaymakers in America take to the road.
去年，欧佩克+以外的石油供给增长充分弥补了需求的提升。今年，非欧佩克国家石油产量将再次上升——预计巴西和圭亚那的产油量将创新高，但增速将放缓。全球石油库存已经在缩减。随着美国人纷纷外出度假，开车上路，今年夏天库存下降将更快。
注释：
cartel：Acartel is an association of similar companies or businesses that have grouped together in order to prevent competition and to control prices. 卡特尔; 同业联盟
All this is happening at the same time as demand becomes more pressing. Measures of manufacturing activity in America, China and Europe have surprised on the upside, leading the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, to predict that global crude demand will rise by an average of 1.2m b/d this year, up from the 900,000 b/d it suggested in October. Others, including some big traders andopec itself, reckon demand growth may near or surpass 2m b/d.
所有这一切都恰逢需求愈发迫切之时。美国、中国和欧洲的制造业活动意外扩张，由此，国际能源署（一个官方预测机构）预测，今年全球原油需求将平均增加120万桶/日，高于10月份预测的90万桶/日。其他组织，包括一些大型交易商和欧佩克本身，认为需求增长可能接近或超过200万桶/日。
注释：
International Energy Agency: 国际能源署是总部设于法国巴黎的政府间国际组织。
Where will the oil price go next? Ifopec+ keeps its cuts unchanged, it could reach $100 within months. But that is not an outcome the cartel really wants. Many members, not least Saudi Arabia, worry that a rapid rise in the oil price could destroy demand. Dearer crude is pushing American petrol prices, already at $3.60 a gallon, closer to $4. A surge past that point could shave 200,000 b/d off petrol demand over the summer, estimates JPMorgan Chase, a bank. Thus opec+ may signal its intention to produce more at its next meeting. Jorge León, a former opec analyst now at Rystad Energy, a consultancy, expects crude to average $90 a barrel in the third quarter of the year and $89 in the final quarter. Futures markets are even more sanguine: buying crude for delivery in December costs around $85 a barrel.
未来油价走势何去何从？若欧佩克+持续减产，油价可能在数月内达到100美元/桶，这并非欧佩克+希望看到的结果。许多成员国，尤其是沙特阿拉伯，担忧快速增长的油价会破坏需求。受原油价格上涨影响，美国汽油价格不断推高，目前已涨至每加仑3.6美元，接近4美元。摩根大通银行估计，突破4美元/加仑关卡将导致夏季汽油需求减少20万桶/日。因此，欧佩克+在其下次会议中可能会表明原油增产的意愿。前欧佩克分析师、现咨询机构雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的豪尔赫·莱昂（Jorge León）预计，今年第三季度原油均价为90美元/桶，第四季度89美元/桶。期货市场甚至更加乐观：12月交货的原油价格为85美元/桶。
注释:
欧佩克+（opec+）: 在近年来全球石油需求一度出现供过于求的背景下，欧佩克与部分非欧佩克产油国逐渐形成一种长期合作机制——“欧佩克+”。2016年，国际油价一度跌破30美元/桶。为了重新平衡市场，降低库存水平以提升油价，这一年12月，欧佩克成员国和以俄罗斯为首的10个非欧佩克产油国在奥地利首都维也纳达成限产协议，“欧佩克+”自此形成。2019年7月2日，欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国签署《合作宪章》，“欧佩克+”的合作机制实现长期化，主要通过召开会议，商议并协定增产或减产，调节国际石油供应，从而达到影响油价的目的。
Even if the tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran escalates, it is unlikely to change much. Any reduction in Iran’s exports—worth 1.6m b/d in March—might be balanced by more pumping from the rest ofopec. In a worst-case scenario, Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean, through which 30% of the world’s seaborne oil, and nearly all of the Gulf’s, must pass. Yet doing so would anger just about everyone in the region, and cut off Iran from its sole oil buyer: China. Although Iran could opt to cause trouble in less self-harming ways, such as harassing ships in the Gulf, this may not have a big impact. Even the tanker war of the 1980s—when hundreds of tankers were attacked—failed to durably boost prices.
即使以色列和伊朗之间的针锋相对再升级，也不会有太大的变化。伊朗原油出口量在三月份达到了160万桶/日，任何其出口量的减少都可能会被欧佩克其他成员国的增产平衡。在最坏的情况下，伊朗可能会封锁霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz），这是连接波斯湾与印度洋的航道，是世界上30%的海运石油以及近乎所有海湾地区海运石油的必经之路。然而，这样做只会触怒该地区各方势力，并切断伊朗唯一的石油买家——中国。尽管伊朗或许会选择对自身伤害更小的方法，比如骚扰海湾地区的船只，但这影响不大。即便是上世纪八十年代的油轮战争——数百艘游轮遭受袭击，也未能持续提升石油价格。
The most likely scenario, therefore, is that oil prices remain tolerable to the world economy, at somewhere in the region of $85-90 a barrel, while allowingopec members to earn juicy margins. Prices are unlikely to fall soon, though. And whether such a level is tolerable to American voters, who see gasoline prices advertised in big red numbers by the highway every day, is another matter entirely.
因此，最有可能出现的情况是，石油价格仍保持在世界经济可接受的范围内，在85-90美元/桶之间，同时允许欧佩克成员赚取丰厚利润。不过，石油价格不大可能很快下跌。至于每天在高速公路上都能看到油价以大红数字广而告之的美国选民们能否接受这个价格水平，那就完全是另一件事了。
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石油作为目前使用最广泛的自然资源，并且由少数几个国家掌握其定价权。其价格的涨幅就不止是简单的由供求关系构成了。本文讨论了主要归因于油价的上涨导致原油需求下降从而影响石油未来的需求格局，从而推断出即使地缘政治持续紧张，原油价格不会大幅度上涨。
由于美国是石油进口大国，由于其境内页岩油开采成本远高于海湾地区，所以美国境内的原油价格很大程度上也取决于进口石油。进口石油的价格上涨，将冲击美国境内的商品价格，从而加紧通货膨胀，以及导致经济恢复放缓。这样一来，美联储在计划中的降息政策又要暂缓施行，且经济复苏导致银行资产负债表承压，这很明显不是美国政府想要看到的局面。
进口石油的价格往往取决于欧佩克+对原油价格的锚定。我们就地缘政治来看，早在1973年，以色列和伊斯兰国家就爆发过军事摩擦，当时美国在志愿以色列后，沙特激进地实施了石油禁运，导致了美国以及其他西方国家石油价格几近翻倍，很大程度上抑制了经济发展，从而爆发了全球第一次石油危机。所以再看现在以色列伊朗的形式，美国在目前泥菩萨过河的状态下将很难再作出与当时同样程度的决定。对于沙特来说，今日也不同夕比。环球能源改革的步伐也已经摆在明面，我们以居民出行举例，更高的油价将加速新能源使用的渗透率。换言之，在居民交通中，大于40%的成本都是油费，那如果这一比例再度增加，为什么不考虑把油车换成电车呢？随着新能源渗透率的提升，那么这些中东国家的根本将也受到威胁。
我们再回看1973年以色列的赎罪日战争，当时以色列铁娘子果尔达在会见美国国务卿时提到你先是犹太人，再是美国公民，再是美国国务卿（电影场景），但是放在现在，以色列人还是那个受够了压迫，誓死捍卫主权的民族，但是美国和沙特已经不再如前了，每一个国家的民族志愿都在各方利益中不断受到审视，也许，真正能带来和平的将并不是那写在一本本盛典上的“如果他们倾向和平，那么你也应该倾向和平（古兰经8:61）”，而正是这些类似石油一样，我们在我们生活中必不可少的商品，因为在利益面前，我们的基因已经帮助我们选择了妥协与让步。也正是因为这些顾虑，妥协和让步，反而帮我们巩固了和平。
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