Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20240720期财经板块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
Why investors are unwise to bet on elections
Turning a profit from political news is a lot harder than it looks
To meet theworld’s biggest news junkies, head not to Washington or Westminster. Instead, make your way to a trading floor, where information from every corner of the globe must be parsed the instant it emerges. Whatever the news, from coups to company-earnings reports, it probably affects the price of something. This year, amid a seemingly never-ending series of elections, the addicts are not short of a fix. Electorates representing most of the world’s population are heading to polling booths, and not just market-makers but investors everywhere face the tantalising prospect of trading on the results.世界上最痴迷新闻的人，不在美国首都华盛顿或英国政治中心威斯敏斯特，而是在金融市场的交易大厅。在那里，人们需要瞬间解读来自全球每个角落的信息。无论是政变还是财报，只要是新闻就可能影响某种资产的价格。今年，许多国家将迎来大选，这些新闻饕餮可以大快朵颐了。随着代表全球大部分人口的选民前往投票站，不止是做市商，所有投资者都免不了想要押注选举结果。注释：
1.Junky: a person who gets an unusual amount of pleasure from or has an unusual amount of interest in something
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/junky
2.Coup: a sudden decisive exercise of force in politics and especially the violent overthrow or alteration of an existing government by a small group
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/coup
3.Tantalising：possessing a quality that arouses or stimulates desire or interest
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tantalizingThe rewards of doing so successfully are difficult to ignore, since an incoming government has a huge capacity to influence investors’ returns. Its fiscal decisions will alter the course of sovereign-bond yields, company profits and foreign-exchange rates. Subsidies, tariffs and regulation will determine which industries get a boost and which are knocked for six. Less tangible, if no less important, the vibes that a new administration gives off concerning trade, cross-border investment and commerce in general will help decide whether foreign capital floods in or beats a quiet retreat. It all hits the bottom line.押宝成功的回报实在是过于诱人，因为即将上台的新政府能够对投资者回报产生巨大影响。其财政决策将左右国债收益率、公司利润和汇率的走势。补贴、关税和监管政策将决定哪些行业得到提振，哪些行业遭受重创。在贸易、跨境投资领域和商业大面上，新政府的信号可能没有那么具体，但同样重要，因为这将决定外国资本是纷至沓来还是悄然撤退。这一切都将体现在财报上。注释
1.hit/knock (someone) for six: to have an unpleasant and shocking effect on (someone)
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/knock%20for%20six
2.the bottom line: the line at the bottom of a financial report that shows the net profit or loss.
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bottom-lineThis is where even the most ardent armchair politico should pause, take a breath and perhaps follow it with a cold shower. Elections offer endless streams of data (in the form of polls and betting odds) as well as constant twists and turns (a shock coalition in India; a candidate’s withdrawal in America). They are like catnip to investors, while also burdening their portfolios with real risks. Still, the temptation of trying to make a quick buck from politics should be resisted. For most, it is simply too hard.然而，这个时候，即便是最魔怔的键盘政治家也应该暂停片刻，深呼吸，或许再冲个冷水澡。选举制造了延绵无尽的数据流（民调结果、投注赔率等）以及层出不穷的戏剧性变化（印度的意外联盟、美国的候选人退出）。这就像投资者的猫薄荷，同时也给他们的投资组合带来了实际风险。尽管如此，我们应当抵抗通过押注政治快速获利的诱惑。对于大多数人来说，这实在是太难了。注释：
1.ardent：characterized by warmth of feeling typically expressed in eager zealous support or activity
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ardent
2.Catnip: n. 1) a strong-scented perennial mint (Nepeta cataria) that has whorls of small pale flowers in terminal spikes and contains a substance attractive to cats 2)something very attractive
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/catnipTo see why, return to that trading floor. You might indeed have identified that a political development—a snap election in Britain, a president haemorrhaging support in America, a poll suggesting France’s parliament might fall to the far right—is likely to affect asset prices. But the traders and their algos will have got there first. By the time you have placed your bet that a battered currency will recover, a yield curve will steepen or a bond spread will widen, most of the move will already have happened and the lion’s share of your profits will have already gone.要了解个中缘由，还需要回到交易大厅。你可能会注意到某个政治事件可能会影响资产价格走势，例如英国突然宣布举行大选、美国总统支持率大跌、或民调显示法国议会可能会落入极右翼手中，但交易员及其交易算法总会先下手为强。等到你姗姗来迟，再去押注一只受创的货币将会反弹、收益率曲线将会变陡或债券利差将会扩大时，其实该事件所导致的价格变动已经发生了大半，而大部分的收益也已经流失了。注释：
lion's hare: the largest portion.
Source: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lion's%20shareSuppose you booked your trade in time for the juice to still be worth the squeeze. Perhaps it was the night of June 27th and Donald Trump had just trounced Joe Biden in a televised debate. You decided deficit-funded tax cuts under Mr Trump’s presidency had just become more likely, which, all else being equal, would push up Treasury yields. And you were right: by July 1st the ten-year Treasury yield had risen by nearly 20 basis points. But all else is never equal. Over the next couple of weeks, even as Mr Trump’s chances looked as strong as ever, weak employment figures and surprisingly cool inflation data would have brought yields back down and then some, putting your trade into the red. You would have made the right political call, and other factors would have swamped its consequences.假设你在仍然有利可图的时候及时进行了交易。例如6月27日晚上，唐纳德·特朗普刚刚在一场电视辩论中碾压了乔·拜登，你当即断定，特朗普胜选并扩大财政赤字、推行减税政策的概率更大，那么在其他条件不变的情况下，这将推高美国国债收益率。而你也赌对了：截至7月1日，10年期美国国债收益率上升了近20个基点。然而，其他条件却并不会一成不变。在后续几周里，尽管特朗普的胜算仍然看起来很大，但疲软的就业数字和超预期放缓的通胀数据促使收益率回落，甚至比之前还低，从而使你的交易陷入亏损。你也许做出了正确的政治判断，但其他因素却侵蚀了这一判断的收益。注释：
1.trounce：If you trounce someone in a competition or contest, you defeat them easily or by a large score. 轻松战胜; 大胜
2.swamp：If something swamps a place or object, it fills it with water. 淹没Even that assumes you correctly judged the implications of the news in the first place. In practice, knock-on effects on asset prices that might seem obvious at first can often be argued both ways. Immediately after Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, lost his parliamentary majority in June, Indian stocks tanked. Whatever it was that investors feared, they swiftly changed their minds. After falling by 6% on the day of the election result, India’s benchmark index duly recovered its losses within the week and then continued to climb.这还是假设你一开始就对新闻做出了正确判断的情况下。而在实践中，特定事件对资产价格的影响初看之下可能不言自明，但解读的空间永远存在。6月，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的印人党失去议会多数席位后，印度股市即刻暴跌。但不管一开始投资者害怕的是什么，他们很快就改变了主意。在选举结果公布当天下跌6%后，印度基准指数在一周内就快速收复失地，然后继续攀升。注释：
This summer’s “Trump trades” may well end up looking similarly shaky, even if Mr Trump does return to the White House. The classic argument is that a promised 60% tariff on Chinese goods, plus a blanket 10% on those from elsewhere, would fuel inflation and higher bond yields. Yet the opposite might also be true. Should such tariffs trigger a tit-for-tat retaliation, the ensuing instability and shock to growth could well enhance Treasuries’ safe-haven appeal, ultimately lowering yields.即使特朗普真的重返白宫，今年夏天的“特朗普交易”可能最终也站不住脚。特朗普一个经典承诺是，对进口自中国的商品征收60%的关税，对进口自其他国家和地区的商品征收10%的关税，这将加剧通货膨胀并推高债券收益率。然而，结局也可能恰好相反。如果此类关税引发针锋相对的报复，随之而来的动荡和对经济增长的冲击很可能会增强美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力，最终压低收益率。注释：
1.shaky：If you describe a situation as shaky, you mean that it is weak or unstable, and seems unlikely to last long or be successful. 不牢靠的
2.tit-for-tat：A tit-for-tat action is one where someone takes revenge on another person for what they have done by doing something similar to them. 以牙还牙的For a certain type of investor, this very unpredictability is the whole point of betting on anything: bearing risk is precisely what creates the potential for outperformance. Perhaps. But deliberate exposure to this sort of radical uncertainty is a far cry from most people’s investment strategy. News junkies should enjoy this year’s electoral drama to their hearts’ content—and keep their trading apps firmly closed.对于某类投资者来说，这种不可预测性正是下注的全部意义所在，他们认为承担风险是创造超额回报潜力的关键。也许吧。但故意暴露在这种极端的不确定性中，与大多数人的投资策略相去甚远。今年各国选举你方唱罢我登场，新闻老饕们大可尽情享受，但最好还是不要手痒打开交易客户端。注释：
to one‘s heart content：尽情翻译组：
Martina：想要成为REST的I人
Vivifang，顺应周期，爱与自由同时发生
Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind.
Hannah，做个废柴，保持愉快。
风筝，热爱生活 热爱翻译 热爱搞钱 热爱猫咪
本期感想
Cleo，学习不停，思考不止，努力成为审慎却乐观的深入思考者
本文概述了由于选举形势变幻莫测，波诡云谲。使得使用事件导向投机策略的投资人面临短时间内难以变化仓位从而导致账面亏损的市场风险。
的确，从服务实体经济来说，事件导向的投资策略从长远来看并不能做到直接帮助产业复苏这一特征，但从短期来看，基金管理人的主要目标还是要最大化股东权益。如果在某一时刻无论是通过研究亦或是凭借上帝压对了选举动向从而部分投资组合收益率飙升对基金经理来说是不可抗拒的诱惑。
如果我们从投资人类型上来看，善于做事件导向投机的机构往往是对冲基金。对冲基金往往有着极多的衍生品来对冲风险。我们很抽象的来看，他们会以20元的成本赌正方有200的收益率；再以20元的成本赌反方有50的收益。无论哪方赢得竞选，该基金都有最低10元的绝对收益。但是对于零售投资来讲，我们几乎不可能在零售银行的客户经理那里买到对冲风险的衍生品，如果用很大比例的资金来做投机，那无异于不用安全绳走钢丝。
如果我们从投资组合角度来看。投机是高风险的游戏，而且再聪明的经济学家，研究员也不可能充当上帝的角色在没有任何内幕消息的情况下预测到川普遇刺以及拜登推选。这将导致此部分的收益率没有保证。所以专业的投资人不会用大部分资金做投机，但他们会在大方向上布局投资组合，在合乎逻辑的情况下动态调整投资策略，以免在大选结果price in的时候以高额的价格购置成本。后者与投机不同的是有着长期视角，以及更确定的研究与事件预期。
金融市场的变幻莫测往往会奖励那些幸运的，勇敢的投资人。但勇敢不是愚勇，在每一次波动的背后是数以亿计的主观判断，那些见微知著，行动敏捷的投资人往往收益颇丰，但幸运女神并不会用于站在一个人身后，所以风险对冲同样重要。如果你自知并不能获取最高质量的信息，也不能很快调整投资策略，也不能有科学的衍生品对冲，那标普500将会是一个更好的选择。
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