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Finance and economics | Buttonwood

财经 | 梧桐树专栏

英文部分选自经济学人20240810期财经板块

Why Warren Buffett has built a mighty cash mountain

为什么沃伦·巴菲特积累了庞大的现金储备

Berkshire Hathaway’s boss is an impressive investor, not an economic oracle

伯克希尔·哈撒韦的掌舵人是位出色的投资者，而非经济先知

No investor commandsattention quite like Warren Buffett. As boss of Berkshire Hathaway, an investment firm that he has run for almost six decades, Mr Buffett’s every movement is scrutinised. When he shifts in his seat, investors large and small ponder what it might mean for their portfolios.

没有哪位投资者能像沃伦·巴菲特那样引起如此多的关注。作为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的掌舵人，他已经营这家投资公司近六十载。巴菲特的一举一动都会受到密切关注。巴菲特在椅子上挪挪位置，大小投资者就得仔细琢磨，这对自己的投资组合意味着什么。

Results released by Berkshire Hathaway on August 3rd gave watchers more reason than normal to take note. The company announced that it had cut its stake in Apple by almost half, to $84bn. Its holdings of cash and Treasury bills increased from $189bn in the first quarter of the year to $277bn at the end of June. The backdrop to the announcement was dismal. Stockmarkets were in the midst of a sell-off, after weaker-than-expected data on American employment had provoked worries about the strength of the world’s largest economy.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦8月3日发布的业绩报告比往常引起了更多关注。该公司宣布已减持苹果公司股份近半，持有仓位降至840亿美元。其持有的现金和国债从今年第一季度的1890亿美元增加至6月底的2770亿美元。其时，美国就业数据不及预期，引发市场对全球最大经济体状况的担忧，股市陷入抛售浪潮。

注释：

dismal：Something that is dismal is bad in a sad or depressing way. 惨淡不良的

Mr Buffett’s reputation has taken on an almost spiritual element: he is known as the “Oracle of Omaha” for a reason. The tens of thousands of investors who flock to Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholder meeting are more disciples than stockpickers. It is no surprise, then, that some onlookers see the cash accumulation as a dark omen. They note that Mr Buffett also accumulated cash in the mid-2000s, before the global financial crisis, leaving him in a strong position to buy when other investors’ balance-sheets were hammered. What does he know about the economy that they do not?

以声誉论，巴菲特已近乎神明：“奥马哈先知”的名号可不是白来的。蜂拥至伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的投资者与其说是选股大师，不如说是忠实门徒。因此，一些观察者将此次现金积累视为不祥之兆也就不足为奇了。他们指出，2000年代中期、金融危机之前，巴菲特也囤积了大量现金，由是，其他投资者的资产负债表遭受重创之际，他得以强势买入资产。那么，他对经济的洞见究竟有何人所不知的独到之处呢？

注释：

1.Oracle of Omaha：Omaha指的是美国内布拉斯加州的一个城市，也是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的总部所在地。Oracle of Omaha是对著名投资者沃伦·巴菲特的别称，因为他居住在Omaha，并且在那里经营他的投资帝国。

2.omen：If you say that something is an omen, you think it indicates what is likely to happen in the future and whether it will be good or bad. 预兆

Less than they imagine. Mr Buffett’s extraordinary talent as an investor is not based on a capacity for seeing the future. Indeed, his outperformance is all the more impressive for his lack of supernatural abilities. In research published in 2018, Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller and Lasse Pedersen, all ofaqr Capital Management, a quantitative investment firm, found that Mr Buffett’s long-run outperformance can be straightforwardly explained. He has bought high-quality stocks at relatively cheap prices, and applied leverage judiciously. His strategy is, in short, classic “value investing”, albeit a form that is combined with the ability to borrow cheaply through Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance business.

倒也没有那么神乎。巴菲特的非凡投资才能并非因为他能预见未来。的确，他没有“超自然能力”还能跑赢市场，才更加令人印象深刻。量化投资公司AQR资本管理（AQR Capital Management）的安德里亚·弗拉兹尼（Andrea Frazzini）、大卫·卡比勒（David Kabiller）和拉斯·佩德森（Lasse Pedersen）三人于2018年发表的研究指出，巴菲特能够长期拿出优异表现的原因其实非直截了当。他在价格相对低点购买高质量的股票，并审慎地运用杠杆。简而言之，他的策略就是经典的“价值投资”，尽管这结合了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司旗下保险业务的低息融资能力。

Just as the explanation for his extraordinary performance is acumen rather than magic, so is the reason for Mr Buffett’s cash build-up. In May Mr Buffett said that his investors should expect him to sell shares and build up reserves for two reasons. One is that he expects taxes on capital gains to rise, and wants to realise his profits before that happens. The other is that he sees few cheap, high-quality companies in which to invest. The stockmarket is expensive across the board.

巴菲特的非凡表现背后不是神奇的魔法，而是敏锐的洞察，他囤积现金的逻辑也同样如此。五月，巴菲特对自己的投资者表示，会出售股票以增加储备，原因有二：一是他预计资本利得税将上涨，于是希望在此之前兑现自己的利润；二是他认为现在少有低价高质的公司可供投资，股市价格普遍偏贵。

注释：

资本利得税（英文 Capital Gains Tax，简称CGT），是对资本利得（低买高卖资产所获收益）征税。常见的资本利得如买卖股票、债券、贵金属和房地产等所获得的收益。并不是所有国家都征收资本利得税。

拓展阅读：

“资本利得税知多少？” https://m.163.com/dy/article/J8414K8T0519QIKK.html

Berkshire Hathaway’s investments in Japan are an example of both the merits and the limits of Mr Buffett’s strategy. It appears unlikely that the firm would have sold the stakes it holds in fivesogo shosha, cheaply valued trading houses, during the recent bout of market turmoil. In February Mr Buffett mentioned the investments as among those he expected to hold indefinitely. At the same time, he has promised his stakes in the companies will not exceed 10%, a figure his holdings already bump up against. Therefore options for expansion—either at home or abroad—remain scant.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦在日本的投资就是巴菲特战略优缺点的鲜明示例。最近一轮的市场动荡期间，该公司大概率不会出售其持有的五家估值偏低的日本商社的股票。二月，巴菲特提到，他希望永久持有这些投资。同时，他还承诺在这些公司的持股比例不会超过10％，但实际上已超出。因此，不论国内外的扩张选择依旧欠缺。

注释：

sogo shosha:

a large Japanese company that operates internationally and produces a large and diverse range of merchandise and services日本综合商社

巴菲特所持有的日本五大商社，即伊藤忠商事、丸红、三菱商事、三井物产和住友商事。

拓展阅读:

“股神”巴菲特在日股动荡中亏了多少？日本五大商社最新财报均警示汇率风险

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1806614193752742747&wfr=spider&for

Mr Buffett has never claimed to posses the foresight his followers attribute to him. Indeed, he once joked that any firm which hires an economist has one employee too many, and says he has never made any investment decision based on an economic prediction. Although Berkshire Hathaway emerged from the global financial crisis in better shape than the vast majority of its peers, the company’s cash holdings declined as a share of its total assets in the quarters running up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008—not the path an omniscient investor would have taken.

巴菲特从未声称自己拥有追随者眼中的预见能力。事实上，他曾开玩笑道，任何雇佣一个经济学家的公司都有个多余的员工，并声称他从未根据经济预测做出任何投资决定。尽管伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在全球经济危机中的表现优于绝大多数同行，但在2008年雷曼兄弟破产前的几个季度里，该公司的现金持有量占总资产比例有所下降，这并非一名无所不知的投资者会做出的选择。

注释:

collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008:

2008年，美国第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟由于投资失利，在谈判收购失败后宣布申请破产保护，引发了全球金融海啸。美国财政部和联储局协助挽救濒临破产的贝尔斯登，却拒绝出手拯救雷曼兄弟的做法惹起重大争议，市场信心崩溃一发不可收拾，股市也狂泻难止。事件引发的金融危机的一个重要教训就是贷款商之间的竞争既培育了创新，但也带来了高度的不稳定性。

拓展阅读:

金融热词解读：雷曼兄弟破产

https://m.sohu.com/a/798419131_121324754

Mr Buffett’s new cash pile is undoubtedly enormous. Berkshire Hathaway could, if it wished, buy McDonald’s at the burger chain’s current share price and have $80bn left over, or take a stake in Meta larger than the one held by Mark Zuckerberg, the firm’s boss. If markets do enter a steeper downturn, Mr Buffett will be in an enviable position, able to snap up firms trading at discounts. Fans of Mr Buffett’s clear-headed approach to investing should nevertheless take him at his word. His simple maxims are at the root of his long and impressive performance as an investor; his growing cash pile holds no hidden explanation. The value investing Mr Buffett practises has become increasingly tough. In the absence of a much more protracted sell-off, it is likely to remain so.

毫无疑问，此次巴菲特积累了巨额现金储备。如果愿意的话，伯克希尔·哈撒韦可以按当前股价收购汉堡连锁品牌麦当劳（还能再剩下800亿美元），或者取代马克·扎克伯格成为Meta第一大股东。如果市场真的陷入更严重的衰退，巴菲特将处于令人艳羡的有利位置，可以抢先抄底股价下跌的公司。尽管如此，粉丝们如果相信巴菲特思路清晰的投资策略，就应当相信他的说法。他简单的投资原则正是其长期非凡表现的根源；他不断扩大现金储备的缘由再清楚不过了。巴菲特所践行的价值投资变得越来越艰难，除非出现更长期的大规模抛售，否则这种情况可能会持续。

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