太空发射市场分析:小型火箭发射服务供应商发展局限性及后续产品竞争情况
猎鹰1号于2009年从奥梅莱克岛发射升空。
图源:Euroconsult
小型发射服务现状
在财务压力和来自SpaceX Transporter的激烈竞争下,商用小型发射器(企业)现在正在竞相开发重型下一代发射器,他们希望能够在更大的市场上开放。事实上,自2017年以来筹集了90亿美元的私人资金后,商业小型发射器总共只积压了4亿美元的发射合同,除了火箭实验室之外,其次最先进的公司到目前为止只发射了一两次。
因此,市场似乎正在重新发现20年前SpaceX的猎鹰1号的教训,小型发射运营商不满足于小型卫星专用发射市场,而是直接转向重型后续发射。不过,这一次,竞争者更多,需求格局正在迅速变化,所有西方发射供应商都面临着来自SpaceX现在重型发射器和即将推出的星际飞船的激烈竞争。
由于每公斤价格高(比SpaceX Transporter的入门价格高出5或10倍),以及整体发射率低,商业小型发射器大多是利基用户,例如政府技术演示器,投入使用的卫星或具有特定注入需求的小型立方体卫星星座。国防用户的快速入轨时间和响应能力通常被推销为他们的强项,弥补了高昂的价格,但到目前为止,对于大多数供应商来说,他们的反应性(从合同到轨道的时间)超过一年。
与此同时,小型发射器错过了大部分星座发射需求(占未来十年内发射卫星的82%),因为星座运营商成本受限更大,并且星座用户需要快速部署,这只能通过批量或拼车的方式搭载重型载具(立方体卫星星座之外)来实现。截至 2023 年,在所有发射器类型的发射器总运量为 2300 吨中,商业供应商在小型发射器上显示的星座卫星仅占发射质量 4 吨(几乎全是立方体卫星)。
由于有效载荷能力的降低和发射行业的不可压缩成本的结合,导致利润微薄,实现高发射率是大多数小型发射器的关键,也是吸引更多星座客户的唯一途径。但到目前为止,在有限股权融资首次推出之后扩大运营已被证明是非常具有挑战性的。自 2023 年以来,一家备受瞩目的小型发射提供商破产,另一家公司以一小部分估值离开纳斯达克。即使是成立于18年前,7年前首次发射Electron的火箭实验室,也保持着每年9次发射的记录(不包括中国政府的固体发射器)。
几乎所有新兴的小型发射公司现在都计划在更大的市场上推出更重的后续产品,试图摆脱高速率、低利润/发射经济模式。然而,由于筹集的大部分股权资金已经用于小型第一代发射器,因此后续的大量资金往往不确定。下一代重型发射器将更昂贵,开发时间更长,对私人投资者的要求更高,这些投资者经常因为害怕错过而加入,并且尚未看到他们的初始投资回报。
与此同时,许多供应商正在向其他太空业务多元化发展,这表明其核心业务面临压力。例如,最先进的小型发射提供商 Rocket Lab 在 2023 年将其三分之二的收入来自卫星制造活动。其他供应商已经宣布了空间系统或子系统的多样化,例如Astra的卫星推进,以及Phantom Space和Gilmour Space的卫星系统或子系统。
另一个值得关注的领域是带有轨道转移飞行器的小型卫星最后一英里交付(Last-mile delivery——LMD,帮助搭车、拼单的卫星更好更经济地达到目标轨道),这是一项额外的移动服务,作为其核心发射业务的需求中继。Firefly 将推出其 OTV Elytra,该品牌拥有 2023 年收购 Spaceflight 的强大传统。Skyrora也在计划OTV,而Launcher Space最初是一家小型发射公司,已经完全转向LMD,在被VAST收购后停止了其发射器计划。即使是蓝色起源,虽然不是一个小型发射运营商,现在也在计划OTV。
到目前为止,似乎还没有人完全破解可持续商业小型发射的密码。小型发射频率很低,供应商的任何两次发射间隔大约一年(火箭实验室和中国政府的固体发射器除外),每公斤的特定价格通常超过运输车入门价格的 10 倍,这使得小型发射器大多是小众用户。在猎鹰1号首次发射近20年后,市场被提醒,小型卫星不一定需要小型发射器,大多数新兴供应商都面临着为其重型继任者提供资金的疑虑。然而,随着SpaceX对重型发射市场的日益垄断和重型发射的近期瓶颈,许多用户越来越热衷于寻找替代供应商,其中许多供应商直接受到它的启发,并在其之后受到启发。尽管如此,SpaceX的模式是否能够被复制还有待观察,该模式结合了最大的、自筹资金的卫星星座需求、可重复使用性和美国政府的广泛需求支撑。
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Under financial strain and strong competition from SpaceX Transporter, commercial small launchers are now racing to heavy next-generation launchers they hope will open on larger markets. Indeed, after $9 billion raised in private funding since 2017, commercial small launchers hold a combined backlog of only $400 million in launch contracts and besides Rocket Lab, the next most advanced companies have launched only once or twice so far.
Thus, it seems the market is rediscovering the lessons learnt from SpaceX’s Falcon 1 twenty years ago, with small launch operators not content of the smallsat dedicated launch market and moving straight to heavy follow-ons. This time though, there are more contenders, the demand landscape is rapidly changing, and all western launch providers face intense competition from SpaceX’s now-heavy launchers and upcoming Starship.
With high price and low frequency small launchers miss out on most of the market
With a high price per kg (up to 5 or 10 times higher than entry price on SpaceX Transporter), and low launch rates overall, commercial small launchers find mostly niche users such as government technology demonstrators, bring-into-use satellites, or small cubesat constellations with specific injection needs. Fast time-to-orbit and responsiveness for defense users has often been marketed as their strong suit, making up for high price, but so far their reactivity (time from contracting to orbit) stands at over one year for most providers.
Meanwhile small launchers miss out on most of the constellation launch demand (making up 82% of satellites to be launched within the next decade), as constellation operators are more cost-constrained and seek rapid deployment, which can only be achieved by batch or rideshare launches on heavy vehicles (outside of cubesat constellations). As of 2023, constellation satellites manifested on small launchers with commercial providers accounted for only 4 tons of launch mass (almost entirely cubesats), out of a total 2 300 tons for all launcher types.
Due to the combination of reduced payload capacity and the incompressible costs of the launch industry, resulting in thin margins, achieving high launch rates is key for most small launcher and the only way to attract more constellation customers. But ramping up operations beyond first launch on limited equity funding has proven very challenging so far. Since 2023, one high profile small launch provider has gone bankrupt and another has left NASDAQ with a fraction of its valuation. Even Rocket Lab, which was founded 18 years ago and first launched Electron 7 years ago, holds a record of 9 launches per year (excluding Chinese government solid launchers).
Small launch providers racing to heavy follow-ons – again.
Hence, almost all emerging small launch companies are now planning heavier follow-on vehicles opening on larger markets, trying to move away from a high rate, low margin/launch economic model. However, with most equity funding raised already spent in small first-generation launchers, funding of the heavy follow-on is often uncertain. Next-gen heavy launchers will be more expensive and longer to develop, asking more from private investors who often joined out of fear of missing out, and have yet to see a return on their initial investments.
Thus, present commercial small launchers are following the path SpaceX took in the late 2000s, abandoning Falcon 1 and all plans for small launch after 5 launches and moving on to the heavy Falcon 9 which would open on much larger markets (and was almost entirely financed by NASA’s commercial Human spaceflight programs). SpaceX’s Transporter rideshare opportunities are now the biggest challenge to all small launch providers, having launched 81% of small satellite globally (not counting Starlink and chinese satellites) from 2019 to 2023.
Small launch providers diversifying across the board
Meanwhile, indicating pressure on their core business, many providers are diversifying into other space businesses. Rocket Lab for instance, the most advanced small launch provider, in 2023 stemmed two-thirds of its revenue from satellite manufacturing activities. Other providers have announced diversifications in space systems or subsystems, such as satellite propulsion for Astra, and satellite systems or subsystems for Phantom Space and Gilmour Space.
Another area of interest is smallsat Last Mile Delivery (LMD) with Orbital transfer Vehicles, an additional mobility service acting as demand relay for its core launch business. Firefly is to introduce its OTV Elytra, with strong heritage from its acquisition of Spaceflight in 2023. Skyrora too is planning an OTV while Launcher Space, initially a small launch company, has pivoted entirely into LMD, discontinuing its launcher program when acquired by VAST. Even Blue Origin, though not a small launch operator, is now planning an OTV.
Lessons for the launch market
So far, it seems no one has fully cracked the code for sustainable commercial small launch. Small launch frequency is low, with about a year between a provider’s any two launches (except for Rocket Lab and Chinese government solid launchers), and specific prices per kg are typically over 10 times the Transporter entry price, leaving small launchers with mostly niche users.
Almost 20 years after Falcon 1’s first launch, the market is reminded that small satellites do not necessarily call for small launchers, and most of the emerging providers face doubts about funding their heavy successors. Yet, with SpaceX’s growing monopoly on the heavy launch market and near-term bottleneck on heavy launch, many users are increasingly keen on seeing alternative providers, many of which were directly inspired by it and instigated in its wake. Still, it has yet to be seen if SpaceX’s model, combining the largest, self-funded satellite constellation demand, reusability and extensive US government demand, can be replicated.
译者注
本文搬运自Euroconsult。原作者Gabriel Deville为Novaspace航天工业的顾问,负责监督咨询任务和市场情报报告。他专门从事太空物流和在轨服务,是Novaspace太空物流市场报告的编辑。
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