米莱能从秘鲁的经济成功中学到什么？ | 经济学人
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The Americas | Lessons from Lima
经济学人美洲 | 利马的教训
英文部分选自经济学人20240203期商业版块
The Americas | Lessons from Lima
经济学人美洲 | 利马的教训
What Javier Milei could learn from Peru’s economic successes
哈维尔·米莱能从秘鲁的经济成功中学到什么
Argentina’s libertarian president wants to rip up the rule book. He shouldn’t
阿根廷的自由主义总统想要打破规则。其实他不应该如此。
Since taking office in December Javier Milei, Argentina’s new libertarian president, has wasted little time in trying to implement sweeping reforms. He has had one setback: earlier this month an “omnibus” bill of 664 articles was withdrawn after Mr Milei’s party failed to get enough support from Congress. However, Mr Milei has taken the “chainsaw” he promised to Argentina’s bloated state: the peso was devalued by 50% and annual subsidies worth 0.7% of gdp have started to be phased out. The number of government ministries has been reduced from 18 to nine. This week Mr Milei will describe his grand plans to the Conservative Political Action Conference in the United States, full of Donald Trump supporters.He will do so after meeting Antony Blinken, the us secretary of state, in Buenos Aires.
自去年12月上任以来，奉行自由主义的阿根廷新总统哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）便马不停蹄地开展地毯式改革。而就在本月的早些时候，米莱也遭受了一次挫败：他所在的政党未能从国会获得足够的支持，因此（他想要推行的一套）包含664项条款的“综合”法案被撤回。但米莱已经在践行他的承诺，对臃肿的阿根廷进行“大刀阔斧”的改革：比索贬值50%，取消占GDP0.7%的年度补贴。政府部门的数量从18个被削减为9个。米莱本周将前往美国，在充满唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）支持者的保守党政治行动会议上讲述他的宏大计划。在此之前，他将在布宜诺斯艾利斯先会见美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯（Antony Blinken）。
But rather than try to emulate Trumpian bombast, Mr Milei should look closer to home for economic advice, specifically at Peru. At first glance this seems strange. Since 2016 Peru has become a byword for instability. Presidents have come and gone: the sixth in eight years is now in office. There have been three legislatures in that period. The country’s political gyrations included the election of Pedro Castillo, a hard-left president overthrown after attempting a coup against Congress and the judiciary. The killing by security forces of 50 protesters after he was ousted has helped to make Dina Boluarte, his replacement, deeply unpopular.
但与其像特朗普那样动静搞得很大，在经济发展方面，米莱更应该向邻居们的取经，特别是秘鲁。乍一看，这个观点似乎很奇怪。因为自2016年以来，秘鲁俨然就是不稳定的代名词。总统走马灯似的换：八年内历经六位总统。在此期间议会也换了三届。秘鲁政治动荡，包括极左派的佩德罗·卡斯蒂略（Pedro Castillo）当选总统，以及他企图推翻国会和议会的政变失败后被推翻下台。卡斯蒂洛出局之后，安全部队杀害了50名抗议者，这使得人们对继任者迪娜·博瓦特（Dina Boluarte）极为不满。
And yet through all this Peru’s currency, the sol, has been a beacon of stability (see chart). It has long been the most solid currency in South America. Against the dollar, it fluctuates from time to time, but it is worth the same as in 1999.
然而历经种种，秘鲁的货币索尔一直稳如泰山（如图）。长久以来，索尔一直是南美洲最稳定的货币。虽然它兑美元汇率时有波动，但其价值与1999年时持平。
There are lessons in this for Mr Milei, who campaigned on ending chronic inflation by shutting down his country’s central bank and adopting the dollar in place of the peso. Peru suggests that is unnecessary. In the 1980s Peru suffered hyperinflation. In 1985 the shrivelled sol was withdrawn and replaced with the inti (“sun” in Quechua). To no avail: by 1990 the central bank was printing bills marked 5m intis but soon worth almost nothing. Streets in the centre of Lima, the capital, were filled with money-changers: the dollar came to account for over 80% of the money supply. A populist government operated several exchange rates, with cheap dollars for favoured importers—just as in Argentina under Mr Milei’s predecessor.
米莱在竞选时声称要通过关闭国家中央银行和用美元代替比索来结束长期通货膨胀，而索尔的表现非常值得米莱学习。秘鲁的经验表明米莱并不需要采取这些措施。20世纪80年代，秘鲁曾遭受恶性通膨。1985年，秘鲁央行回收失去价值的索尔，代之以印锑（盖丘亚语中意为“太阳”)。但于事无补：截至1990年，央行印制了面值500万印锑的钞票，但很快贬值近零。首都利马市中心的街道上到处都是货币兑换商：美元逐渐占到货币供应量的80%以上。民粹主义政府同时操纵多种汇率，为拥有特权的进口商提供廉价美元——这和米莱前任治下的阿根廷如出一辙。
In 1990 a new president in Peru, Alberto Fujimori, implemented a radical programme of economic stabilisation and reform. The exchange rate was unified at a low rate and then allowed to float. Subsidies on fuel and utility bills were withdrawn overnight; the government stopped printing money and dismantled capital controls and trade barriers. Inflation had reached 2,800% in 1989. As relative prices adjusted, it peaked at 7,650% in 1990 before falling to 139% in 1991 and 6% by 1998. A new sol was introduced in 1991.
1990年，秘鲁新任总统阿尔贝托·藤森（Alberto Fujimori）大刀阔斧地施行了一项稳定经济促进改革的措施。他将汇率统一在较低水平，但是允许浮动；一夜之间取消了针对燃料和水电费的补贴；政府停止印钞，取消了资本管制，破除了贸易壁垒。1989年，通货膨胀率高达2800%。1990年，相对价格调整后，通货膨胀率达到峰值7650%，1991年降至139%，1998年降至6%。1991年开始启用全新的索尔币。
Economic exemplar
经济范例
Having contracted by a quarter between 1988 and 1990, Peru’s economy began to grow, expanding by 5.2% in 1993. With only one or two blips, sustained growth ensued until last year. Mr Fujimori went on to shut down Congress and ... until 2000, but only after the passage of many of his reforms.
1988年至1990年，秘鲁经济萎缩四分之一，之后开始恢复增长。1993年，经济增长率为5.2%。除了偶尔出现经济下滑，秘鲁经济直到去年都一直保持稳定增长。藤森持续关闭国会……直到2000年，他的许多改革（法案）通过之后，藤森才重启国会。
In this century, Peru has enjoyed the lowest inflation among Latin American countries with their own currency, points out Julio Velarde, the governor of the central bank. Peruvians have gradually come to trust the sol. Only 34% of bank deposits, 23% of bank loans and 8% of mortgages are now in dollars.
秘鲁央行行长胡里奥·维拉德指出（Julio Velarde），本世纪以来，在拉美国家中，秘鲁货币的通货膨胀率最低。秘鲁人也逐渐开始信任索尔币——美元目前只占银行存款的34%，银行贷款的23%，抵押贷款的8%。
What explains the sol’s credibility? Start with the central bank. Mr Fujimori granted it constitutional independence. Although the governor and a further three of the seven members of the bank’s board are chosen by the country’s president, they have generally been professionals. Mr Velarde, who has been governor since 2006, enjoys the “total confidence” of financial markets, says Luis Miguel Castilla, a former finance minister. Even Mr Castillo, the left-winger, felt obliged to appoint him for a further term. “There’s a certain public consensus in favour of a prudent macroeconomy,” says Mr Velarde. The bank was among the first in the world to raise its interest rate, in August 2021, to scotch the global spike in inflation. It began cutting again in September. Inflation is now at 3%. With the Federal Reserve slow to cut its own rates, that is prompting some depreciation of the sol.
那秘鲁索尔的货币信誉是如何建立的？首先从中央银行说起。藤森在宪法上保证了秘鲁央行的独立性。尽管是由国家总统挑选央行行长及七名银行董事会成员中的三名，但这些人基本上为专业人士。前财政部长路易斯·米格尔·卡斯蒂利亚（Luis Miguel Castilla）表示，自2006年来一直担任行长的维拉德获得了金融市场的“完全信任”。就连左翼势力卡斯蒂略也觉得有必要让他连任。维拉德说：“公众已经达成共识，即支持审慎的宏观经济政策。”2021年8月，秘鲁央行率先上调利率以遏制全球通胀继续飙升。9月开始利率下调。目前秘鲁的通货膨胀率为3%。随着美联储（Federal Reserve）下调利率的步调放缓，索尔也会有所贬值。
Structural economic factors may be even more important in the sol’s success. Richard Webb, a former central-bank governor, points out that Peru has enjoyed almost 30 years of “a productive boom of dollars”. Mr Fujimori’s economic opening unleashed export growth. And “a revolution in transport” has facilitated a steady increase in food production in the Andes, adds Mr Webb, lessening pressure for food imports. Add to that a steady flow of foreign investment, and all this has allowed the central bank to accumulate international reserves of $74bn, equal to around 28% of gdp, the highest figure in the region. That gives it the heft to defend the currency against volatility. “It’s enough that the market knows we could intervene,” says Mr Velarde.
除此之外，经济的结构性因素可能对索尔币的成功来说更加重要。前央行行长理查德·韦伯（Richard Webb）指出，秘鲁已经经历近30年来的“美元的迅速繁荣”期。藤森的经济开放政策促进了出口增长。韦伯还表示，“交通革命”也促进了安第斯山脉的粮食产量稳步增长，并减轻了粮食进口压力。另外，外国投资流入稳定，因此央行积累的国际储备高达740亿美元（约相当于GDP的28%），这一数值冠绝拉美地区。因而货币能够抵御波动。“市场只要知道我们能够进行干预就足够了，”维拉德称。
In much of this Argentina could profitably copy Peru. Two things are at the root of Argentines’ longstanding mistrust of the peso. One is persistent fiscal deficits that governments have financed by forcing the central bank to print money. Mr Milei is stopping that. The second is protectionism. Even with a bumper agricultural harvest in 2022, Argentina’s exports that year were only 14% of gdp, compared with 26% in Peru. And Argentina’s nationalist economic policies deterred foreign investment. The result is that its central bank has exhausted its international reserves.
在这方面，阿根廷复制秘鲁的做法是有好处的。阿根廷人长期不信任比索的有两个根本原因。其一是由于政府强迫央行印钞进行融资而造成的持续财政赤字。米莱正在阻止这一趋势。二是保护主义。即便2022年农业大丰收，阿根廷当年的农业出口也只占GDP的14%，而秘鲁的出口却占到了26%。同时，阿根廷的民族主义经济政策也阻碍了外国投资，导致其央行已经耗尽了国际储备。
Mr Milei’s proposal to impose dollarisation and shut the central bank attacks the symptom rather than the cause. An earlier Argentine president, Carlos Menem, imposed a kind of soft dollarisation in the 1990s, fixing the peso by law at par to the greenback. But Mr Menem was fiscally lax and Argentina’s economy differs too much from that of the United States to form what economists call an optimal currency area. Over time the peso became overvalued; a successor government had to impose wrenching deflation, which could not prevent a financial collapse in 2001-02.
米莱推行美元化和关闭央行的提议治标不治本。上世纪90年代，阿根廷前任总统卡洛斯·梅内姆（Carlos Menem）实施的是温和美元化，通过法律规定比索与美元等值。但他实施的是宽松的财政政策，而且阿根廷的经济实力与美国相差悬殊，无法形成经济学家所说的最优货币区。随着时间的推移，比索的估价变得过高了；继任政府不得不实施痛苦的通货紧缩政策，但这依旧无法阻止2001到2002年的金融危机。
Since taking office Mr Milei has said little about dollarisation. He has shown willingness to rule by decree, but has so far lacked the political skill to pass reforms in Congress. He was in Israel when the omnibus bill was withdrawn. Since returning to Argentina he has made headlines for picking spats with a pop star and calling Congress a “den of rats”. Such belligerence will make it harder for him to succeed.
自上任以来，米莱很少谈及美元化。他已经表现出依法令治理国家的意愿，但迄今为止仍缺乏在国会通过改革法案的政治技巧。当综合法案被驳回时，他正在以色列。自从回到阿根廷后，他就因与一位流行歌星发生口角并称国会为“老鼠窝”而登上头条。这种好战心理将使他的成功之路愈发艰辛。
As for Peru, the sol faces a medium-term test. Partly because of political instability, the economy shrank by 0.6% last year. It is forecast to grow again this year, but by only 2-3%.
对于秘鲁而言，等待着索尔的是一场中期考验。去年，由于政治不稳定等因素，秘鲁经济萎缩了0.6%。秘鲁经济预计今年将再次增长，但增幅只有2-3%。
Mr Castilla, the former finance minister, worries that the next election in Peru, due in 2026, could throw up a populist president who would compromise the central bank’s independence. But for now most Peruvians continue to keep their money in their national currency, a luxury Argentines have yet to enjoy.
前财政部长卡斯蒂利亚担心，2026年举行的下一届秘鲁大选可能会产生一位有损央行独立性的民粹主义总统。但就目前而言，大多数秘鲁人仍在使用本国货币，而这是阿根廷人尚未享受到的奢侈。
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团队由毕业于蒙特雷，纽卡，北外，北二外等小伙伴组成
有丰富口译实战经验，课程内容包括
听辨交传笔记法、短记复述练习、视译专题等
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