三星能否再创辉煌？| 经济学人商业
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思维导图作者：
Cece，消防人+经济学人粉丝
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Can Samsung get its mojo back?
英文部分选自经济学人20240727期商业板块
Can Samsung get its mojo back?
Its profits are surging, but its technology is lagging behind
Samsung Electronics, South Korea’s most valuable company, is the archetype of vertical integration. The smartphones and other consumer electronics it is best known for accounted for about half of its revenue and a quarter of its operating profit in the period from April to June. The rest came from the components that go into such devices—including the semiconductors that run them.
三星电子，韩国最具价值的的公司，也是垂直整合的典范。今年4月到6月，该公司旗下最知名的智能手机和其他消费电子产品占据了公司的一半收入和四分之一的营业净利润。其他的收益则来自于这类设备的元器件销售，包括这些设备中要使用到的半导体。
On July 31st the company reported that its operating profit in the most recent quarter was up 16-fold, year on year, thanks to growth in its chip business. Demand is rocketing as tech giants such as Microsoft and Alphabet rush to build data centres to support their artificial-intelligence (AI) ambitions. Samsung’s share price rose 4% on the day. Yet a single bumper quarter cannot obscure the company’s deeper challenges. Most worrying is that it has been losing ground to rival chipmakers. Global technology stocks are up by 82% since the start of 2023. Samsung’s value has risen by just half that (see chart 1).
今年7月31号，公司发布的最近一个季度的营业净利润同比提升了16倍，这归功于芯片产业的蓬勃发展。像微软、字母表公司这些科技巨头，都在加紧建造自己的数据中心来支持自己的人工智能大业。这天三星的股票涨了4%。然而，单一季度的丰收却无法掩盖公司更深层次的挑战。最大的忧患源于芯片制造竞争中的失利。从2023年开始，全球科技股总体上升幅度高达82%。三星的上升幅度却只有这个数值的一半（如图一）
The South Korean giant is struggling to compete at the cutting-edge of both logic chips (which process information) and memory chips (which store it). In the first category, it has fallen further behind TSMC, a Taiwanese foundry that manufactures semiconductors on behalf of companies such as Nvidia, the leading supplier of AI chips. Between the first quarters of 2019 and 2024 the Taiwanese firm increased its share of the global chip-foundry business from 48% to 61%, according to Trendforce, a research firm. Samsung’s share fell from 19% to 11% (see chart 2).
这个韩国巨头正在加紧研发尖端的逻辑芯片（用于处理信息）和记忆芯片（用于储存信息）。在第一个类别中，三星远落后于台积电，台积电是一家为半导体芯片做晶圆代工生意的台湾公司，该公司为英伟达等前沿公司提供人工智能芯片。根据调研公司集邦咨询的数据，从2019年第一季度至今，台积电的芯片晶圆代工生意蒸蒸日上，其市场占有率从48% 升至 61%。三星则由 19% 降至 11%（如图二）
备注：foundry：晶圆代工或晶圆专工（Foundry），是半导体产业的一种商业模型，指接受其他无厂半导体公司（Fabless）委托、专门从事晶圆成品的加工而制造集成电路，并不自行从事产品设计
Samsung’s position as the global leader in memory chips is also under threat. There it is being menaced by SK Hynix, a South Korean firm spun off from Hyundai in 2001 that has become the world’s biggest producer of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. These stack memory chips together, increasing speed and decreasing power consumption, which makes them especially useful in AI applications. In HBM3, the most advanced type currently available, SK Hynix is thought to hold a market share of 90%. Samsung’s memory chips, meanwhile, reportedly suffer from low production yields (the proportion of chips that actually work). Buyers are said to grouse about poor power efficiency.
三星作为全球存储芯片领导者的地位也受到了威胁，其中一大威胁便来自于SK海力士。SK海力士是一家韩国公司，2001年从现代汽车剥离出来，现已成为全球最大的高带宽存储器芯片生产商。高带宽存储芯片堆叠在一起可以提高速度、降低功耗，这也让它们成为了人工智能应用领域中的“香饽饽”。SK海力士占据了目前最先进的HBM3芯片90%的市场份额。与此同时，报道称三星的存储芯片的良品率（能成功运行的芯片比例）较低。据说买家抱怨它的功率效率不尽人意。
Because of long lead times for conducting research and building factories, success and failure in the semiconductor industry can be many years, even decades, in the making. For SK Hynix, an early bet on HBM allowed the company to steal a march on its larger competitor. It 2013 it pioneered the original HBM industry standards in collaboration with AMD, an American chip firm. Samsung, by contrast, scaled down its HBM research team in 2019. Industry analysts point to a legacy of complacency among Samsung’s top brass when it comes to shifts in technology.
由于研发和建造工厂需要很长的准备时间，在半导体行业中，成败可能需要很多年甚至几十年才能见分晓。对SK海力士来说，早期押注HBM让该公司得以领先于规模更大的竞争对手。2013年，该公司与美国芯片公司AMD合作，率先推出了最初的HBM行业标准。相比之下，三星则在2019年缩减了其HBM研究团队。行业分析人士指出，三星高层在技术变革方面的自满情绪由来已久。
Samsung’s problems are not limited to its chipmaking business. Its share of global smartphone sales is roughly stable, despite stiffening competition from cheap Chinese rivals. Elsewhere in the supply chain, though, Chinese companies are making life difficult. Two years ago the company gave up on competing against them in the liquid-crystal display (LCD) screen business. It now concentrates on more advanced organic light-emitting diode (OLED) screens, producing them both for its own devices and for those of other companies. Even there, however, it confronts Chinese competition, most notably from BOE Technologies, a state-owned enterprise which has rapidly climbed to prominence in the industry.
三星的问题不仅限于芯片制造业务。尽管与中国低端对手的竞争越来越激烈，但其在全球智能手机销售中的份额基本稳定。不过，在供应链的其他环节，中国企业也使其陷入困境。两年前，三星放弃了在液晶显示器（LCD）屏幕业务上与苹果的竞争。它现在专注于更先进的有机发光二极管（OLED）屏幕，既为自己的设备生产，也为其他公司生产。然而，哪怕在这一领域，它也面临着来自中国的竞争，与一家在该行业迅速崛起的中国国有企业京东方科技（BOE Technologies）的竞争最为激烈。
显示屏业务面临的挑衅
In November Samsung filed a complaint against BOE with America’s International Trade Commission, accusing the company of misappropriating its trade secrets (BOE has not responded to the allegation). The OLED market is growing quickly, and South Korean producers such as Samsung still lead at the premium end of it. But the company has reason to be nervous. According to the Korean Display-Industry Association, a trade body, the proportion of Chinese smartphones made with South Korean OLED panels has fallen dramatically, from 78% in 2021 to 16% in 2023.
去年11月，三星向美国国际贸易委员会起诉京东方，指控该公司盗用其商业机密，而京东方没有回应这一指控。有机发光二极管市场增长迅速，三星等韩国生产商在高端市场仍处于领先地位，但它也有理由感到紧张。据行业组织韩国显示产业协会（Korean Display-Industry Association）称，使用韩国OLED面板生产的中国智能手机比例大幅下降，从2021年的78%降至2023年的16%。
To make matters worse, the company has lately been grappling with a fractious workforce. In July thousands of its employees gathered outside company facilities south of Seoul, as part of the first organised work stoppage in the firm’s history. The protest over pay and conditions is not yet resolved, and several thousand workers in the company’s semiconductor factory are still refusing to return to work.
更糟糕的是，三星近来还要设法安抚不满的员工。七月，成千上万的三星员工在首尔南郊三星厂区门外召开集会，参加三星有史以来第一次有组织的罢工行动。这场针对薪资和工作条件的抗议尚未平息，三星半导体工厂也仍有数千名工人不愿返岗。
Nonetheless, there are glimmers of hope for the company. In July its HBM3 chips were accepted by Nvidia for its H20 processors, which comply with American export rules for the Chinese market. Samsung’s next iteration of HBM chips is now being evaluated by possible buyers. It plans to begin the mass production of cutting-edge two-nanometre logic chips in 2025, and has secured orders from customers including Preferred Networks, a Japanese AI firm. An added advantage for Samsung is that, as a supplier of both memory and logic chips, it can offer a one-stop shop for customers. It already has the necessary capabilities to package chips together, which is tricky.
尽管如此，三星仍有一线希望。七月，英伟达决定旗下的H20处理器采用三星HBM3芯片，这款处理器符合美国针对中国市场的出口规定。三星的新一代HBM芯片正在接受潜在客户的评估。该公司计划于2025年启动2纳米尖端逻辑芯片的大规模量产，并且已经获得了日本AI企业Preferred Networks等客户的订单。此外，三星既能生产存储芯片，也能生产逻辑芯片，可以为客户提供一站式购物，这也是它具备的一大优势。三星已经具备封装多个芯片的必备能力，而这并非易事。
美国长期以来一直针对中国进行处理器算力的出口管制。作为一家美国公司，英伟达为符合美国出口管制要求，不得不频繁更改处理器设计，开发特供中国的处理器。使用三星HBM3芯片后，H20处理器的算力较低，符合了美国的出口管制要求
Buyers of the most advanced memory and logic chips are desperate for more competition in the market. According to Myron Xie of SemiAnalysis, a consultancy, Nvidia is “very keen” that all three of the leading memory-chip companies—Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, an American firm—are able to offer the products it needs. He adds that, when it comes to manufacturing logic chips, Samsung “doesn’t have to be on par with TSMC, but does need to be closer to make it an acceptable proposition”.
最先进存储芯片和逻辑芯片的买家迫切希望该市场上有更多的竞争。SemiAnalysis咨询公司的米伦·谢（Myron Xie）表示，英伟达“非常希望”存储芯片企业的三巨头——三星、SK海力士和美国美光——都能提供自己需要的产品。此外，谢还表示，就生产逻辑芯片而言，三星“不需要和台积电比肩，但为了能摆的上台面，也需要尽量跟上”。
三星了解自身面临的威胁。五月，三星领导层作出重大调整，业务不断扩张的电池分部原掌门人全永贤（Jun Young-hyun）接替了芯片制造业务领导人庆桂显（Kyung Kye-hyun）的职位。此外，三星也在投入资金，努力追赶竞争对手。最近四个季度，三星的资本支出总计达到440亿美元，而同期的台积电投资额为260亿美元，SK海力士为60亿美元（见图3）。但是，与上面这些业务相对集中的企业不同，三星的支出涵盖多个领域，来尝试在多个领域击败竞争对手。三星的综合产业模型已经良好运作了数十年，但这个模型也并非十全十美。
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代加工，无论对于哪个企业而言，都只是通往更高的阶梯，也却是一种有效的途径。
代加工本身的利润是已被设计好的，上限被限制了，下限则取决于各自的水平了。所以这个层面上而言，代加工的意义就是赚取一点辛苦费，属于吃不饱饿不死。
但代加工为什么还有这么多企业愿意做呢，这里面有两点原因。其一，代加工可以以最快的方式进入一个之前未有可能涉及的领域，包括一系列的规范，技术工艺，以及行业内的种种。这是拓展企业业务维度的捷径。其二，代加工企业几乎不可能对于所有零部件进行自产，所以也会由此带动一大批配套供应商，对于某个区域而言，这就有概率形成局部的产业集群和几乎完整的供应链。特别是对于整机代工的尤为明显。对企业对政府而言都是大有益处的。
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